FitzPatrick 1932
FitzPatrick 1932 is an early paper in the field of bankruptcy prediction. In a series of three articles in the monthly The Certified Public Accountant in 1932, Paul J. FitzPatrick presented data for 20 matched pairs of firms and discussed accounting ratios as indicators of bankruptcy. It is historically significant as an early attempt in this field, and it is notable also for its publishing a data set, now in the public domain. Beaver (1968), an important paper in accounting research which employs statistical analysis to a similar matched sample, cites the paper.
The dataset includes 13 accounting ratios calculated for 40 firms for each of three years. However some fields are missing for some firm-year observations.
Example data
Pair I.D. | Survive? | Industry | Current ratio | Quick ratio | Net worth to fixed assets |
1 | 0 | Meat-packing | 734 | 302 | 111 |
1 | 1 | Meat-packing | 426 | 221 | 121 |
2 | 0 | Confections manufacture and sale | 211 | 70 | 244 |
2 | 1 | Confections manufacture and sale | 629 | 312 | 298 |
3 | 0 | Cereals manufacture and sale | 85 | 42 | 47 |
3 | 1 | Cereals manufacture and sale | 493 | 261 | 177 |
4 | 0 | Pianos manufacture and sale | 203 | 91 | 287 |
4 | 1 | Pianos manufacture and sale | 793 | 544 | 621 |
5 | 0 | Writing paper manuf and sale | 468 | 197 | 187 |
5 | 1 | Writing paper manuf and sale | 286 | 144 | 178 |
6 | 0 | Cane sugar and bananas prodn and sale | 26 | 11 | 38 |
6 | 1 | Cane sugar and bananas prodn and sale | 139 | 133 | 110 |
7 | 0 | Agriculture implement manufacturers | 156 | 46 | 91 |
7 | 1 | Agriculture implement manufacturers | 325 | 126 | 225 |
8 | 0 | Rubber footwear manufacture | 287 | 196 | 210 |
8 | 1 | Rubber footwear manufacture | 223 | 132 | 260 |
9 | 0 | Phonographs and records manufacture | 138 | 54 | 114 |
9 | 1 | Phonographs and records manufacture | 414 | 226 | 261 |
10 | 0 | Rubber tire industry | 328 | 165 | 270 |
10 | 1 | Rubber tire industry | 347 | 160 | 258 |
11 | 0 | Fish products production and sale | 160 | 49 | 232 |
11 | 1 | Fish products production and sale | 135 | 47 | 100 |
12 | 0 | Cotton textile industry of New England | 282 | 66 | 124 |
12 | 1 | Cotton textile industry of New England | 392 | 133 | 134 |
13 | 0 | Cotton textile industry of New England | 99 | 71 | 75 |
13 | 1 | Cotton textile industry of New England | 160 | 65 | 142 |
14 | 0 | Collars and shirts manufacture | 2525 | 1275 | 118 |
14 | 1 | Collars and shirts manufacture | 2764 | 1541 | 591 |
15 | 0 | Phonographs and records manufacture | 274 | 153 | 304 |
15 | 1 | Phonographs and records manufacture | 555 | 351 | 345 |
16 | 0 | Cotton textile industry of New England | 51 | 22 | 78 |
16 | 1 | Cotton textile industry of New England | 171 | 49 | 129 |
17 | 0 | Woolen textile industry | 507 | 103 | 274 |
17 | 1 | Woolen textile industry | 226 | 55 | 261 |
18 | 0 | Fertilizer manufacture | 195 | 153 | 100 |
18 | 1 | Fertilizer manufacture | 761 | 573 | 125 |
19 | 0 | Steel products manufacture | 619 | 160 | 38 |
19 | 1 | Steel products manufacture | 584 | 216 | 144 |
20 | 0 | Wholesale merchandise business | 191 | 84 | 537 |
20 | 1 | Wholesale merchandise business | 170 | 109 | 635 |
References
FitzPatrick, Paul J., Ph.D. 1932. "A Comparison of the Ratios of Successful Industrial Enterprises With Those of Failed Companies". The Certified Public Accountant Beaver 1968. Journal of Accounting Research. (In three issues: October, 1932, p. 598-605; November, 1932, p. 656-662; December, 1932, p. 727-731.