Post-election pendulum for the Victorian state election, 2002
The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the Victorian state election, 2002.
"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.
Seats which changed hands are shown in bold.
| LABOR SEATS | |||
| Seat | Party | Margin | Swing to ALP |
| Marginal | |||
| Evelyn | ALP | 0.3% | +12.7% |
| Hastings | ALP | 0.8% | +8.1% |
| Gembrook | ALP | 1.6% | +8.6% |
| Melbourne | ALP | 1.9% v GRN | * |
| Kilsyth | ALP | 2.1% | +10.1% |
| Ferntree Gully | ALP | 2.3% | +9.9% |
| Mount Waverley | ALP | 2.3% | +11.4% |
| Bayswater | ALP | 2.8% | +9.2% |
| Richmond | ALP | 3.1% v GRN | * |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Prahran | ALP | 4.4% | +9.2% |
| Mordialloc | ALP | 4.5% | +7.1% |
| Bentleigh | ALP | 4.8% | +6.8% |
| Eltham | ALP | 4.8% | +8.6% |
| Morwell | ALP | 4.9% | -4.2% |
| South Barwon | ALP | 5.0% | +9.8% |
| Burwood | ALP | 5.1% | +11.9% |
| Frankston | ALP | 5.8% | +9.1% |
| Forest Hill | ALP | 5.8% | +12.2% |
| Narracan | ALP | 6.8% | +7.3% |
| Safe | |||
| Ripon | ALP | 7.4% | +5.5% |
| Ballarat East | ALP | 7.6% | +4.2% |
| Mitcham | ALP | 7.7% | +7.7% |
| Northcote | ALP | 7.9% v GRN | * |
| Geelong | ALP | 8.1% | +8.6% |
| Bellarine | ALP | 8.3% | +9.8% |
| Monbulk | ALP | 8.3% | +10.8% |
| Ballarat West | ALP | 9.0% | +7.4% |
| Macedon | ALP | 9.3% | +9.7% |
| Brunswick | ALP | 9.3% | * |
| Seymour | ALP | 9.5% | +9.5% |
| Yan Yean | ALP | 9.5% | +10.2% |
| Narre Warren North | ALP | 9.7% | +14.9% |
| Cranbourne | ALP | 10.8% | +9.2% |
| Carrum | ALP | 12.2% | +10.8% |
| Ivanhoe | ALP | 12.5% | +7.6% |
| Albert Park | ALP | 12.5% | +5.8% |
| Narre Warren South | ALP | 12.6% | +14.1% |
| Bendigo East | ALP | 13.0% | +10.0% |
| Oakleigh | ALP | 15.2% | +12.2% |
| Melton | ALP | 15.3% | +8.6% |
| Yuroke | ALP | 15.9% | +7.6% |
| Bendigo West | ALP | 16.0% | +4.9% |
| Mulgrave | ALP | 16.2% | +11.8% |
| Niddrie | ALP | 16.6% | +10.1% |
| Tarneit | ALP | 17.4% | +6.6% |
| Bundoora | ALP | 17.6% | +10.3% |
| Keilor | ALP | 18.1% | +11.4% |
| Very safe | |||
| Dandenong | ALP | 20.3% | +8.7% |
| Lara | ALP | 22.4% | +9.7% |
| Yuroke | ALP | 22.9% | +13.8% |
| Clayton | ALP | 23.9% | +11.8% |
| Pascoe Vale | ALP | 24.2% | +7.3% |
| Altona | ALP | 24.7% | +9.1% |
| Footscray | ALP | 24.9% | +7.0% |
| Lyndhurst | ALP | 25.1% | +14.2% |
| Williamstown | ALP | 25.7% | +7.5% |
| Preston | ALP | 25.8% | +6.9% |
| Mill Park | ALP | 26.8% | +12.9% |
| Kororoit | ALP | 27.1% | +6.2% |
| Derrimut | ALP | 27.3% | +7.0% |
| Broadmeadows | ALP | 30.8% | +5.8% |
| Thomastown | ALP | 31.8% | +7.6% |
| LIBERAL/ NATIONAL SEATS | |||
| Seat | Party | Margin | Swing to ALP |
| Marginal | |||
| Nepean | LIB | 0.2% | +6.1% |
| Bass | LIB | 0.6% | * |
| South-West Coast | LIB | 0.7% | +3.9% |
| Doncaster | LIB | 0.8% | +11.7% |
| Box Hill | LIB | 1.1% | +6.9% |
| Mornington | LIB | 1.8% | +10.1% |
| Benalla | NAT | 2.0% | +5.4% |
| Caulfield | LIB | 2.3% | +6.0% |
| Bulleen | LIB | 2.6% | +10.1% |
| Sandringham | LIB | 3.0% | +9.2% |
| Scoresby | LIB | 3.3% | +11.5% |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Benambra | LIB | 4.0% | +3.6% |
| Shepparton | NAT | 4.3% | * |
| Hawthorn | LIB | 5.9% | +8.3% |
| Kew | LIB | 6.0% | +7.9% |
| Warrandyte | LIB | 6.4% | +7.5% |
| Safe | |||
| Brighton | LIB | 7.4% | +7.4% |
| Polwarth | LIB | 9.5% | +3.7% |
| Rodney | NAT | 10.0% v LIB | * |
| Malvern | LIB | 10.2% | +6.0% |
| Gippsland South | NAT | 10.9% | -2.8% |
| Gippsland East | IND | 11.8% v NAT | * |
| Murray Valley | NAT | 13.9% | +1.9% |
| Swan Hill | NAT | 14.2% | * |
| Lowan | NAT | 17.1% | * |
| Mildura | IND | 18.5% v NAT | * |
References
- Green, Antony (July 2003). "2002 Victorian State Election: Summary of Results" (PDF). ABC Election Unit. Retrieved 22 December 2011.
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