Asturian parliamentary election, 2015

Asturian parliamentary election, 2015
Asturias
24 May 2015
All 45 seats in the Asturian General Junta
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 988,057 Decrease0.2%
Turnout 551,192 (55.8%)
Increase4.7 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Javier Fernández Mercedes Fernández Emilio León
Party FSA–PSOE PP Podemos
Leader since 23 October 2010 14 February 2012 1 April 2015
Last election 17 seats, 32.1% 10 seats, 21.5% Did not contest
Seats won 14 11 9
Seat change Decrease3 Increase1 Increase9
Popular vote 143,851 117,319 103,571
Percentage 26.5% 21.6% 19.1%
Swing Decrease5.6 pp Increase0.8 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Gaspar Llamazares Cristina Coto Nicanor García
Party IU–IX FAC C's
Leader since 24 January 2015 21 February 2015 18 April 2015
Last election 5 seats, 13.8% 12 seats, 24.8% Did not contest
Seats won 5 3 3
Seat change 0 Decrease9 Increase3
Popular vote 64,868 44,480 38,687
Percentage 11.9% 8.2% 7.1%
Swing Decrease1.9 pp Decrease16.6 pp New party
President before election

Javier Fernández
FSA–PSOE

 Elected President

Javier Fernández
FSA–PSOE

The 2015 Asturian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 10th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in 12 other autonomous communities and municipal elections in all of Spain.

Final results showed the Asturian Socialist Federation (FSA–PSOE) with 26.5% of the vote (14 seats), the People's Party (PP) in second with 21.6% (11 seats) and newly-created Podemos (Spanish for "We can") in a close third with 19.1% (9 seats). The Asturias Forum (FAC), which had ruled the community in the 2011–12 period, saw a dramatic loss of support, falling to fifth place with 8.2% and 3 seats, overcame by a stagnant United Left (IU–IX) and in a draw with up-and-coming Citizens (C's).

Socialist leader Javier Fernández was able to retain the regional government thanks to the support of United Left, after PP and FAC joined their votes against the PSOE and with Podemos supporting its own candidate.

Electoral system

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias are elected in 3 multi-member districts using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Unlike other regions, districts do not coincide with provincial limits, being determined by law as such:

Each district is entitled to an initial minimum of 2 seats, with the remaining 39 seats allocated among the three districts in proportion to their populations. For the 2015 election, seats are distributed as follows: Central District (34), Eastern District (5) and Western District (6).

Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of the total vote in each district (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) are entitled to enter the seat distribution.[1]

Background

Following the 2012 election, regional PSOE leader Javier Fernández was able to be elected as President of Asturias thanks to a confidence and supply agreement with both IU-IX and UPyD. However, in November 2013 both parties announced they were withdrawing support from the government after the PSOE voted down a proposal to reform the autonomous community's electoral law (including, among other things, a removal of the three district-division of the Principality), leaving the regional government in minority.[2][3] In order to prevent a parliamentary deadlock, however, the PSOE unexpectedly reached an agreement with the PP in order to obtain its parliamentary support to avoid political instability,[4][5][6] in what was dubbed by opponents as the duerno agreement.[7]

Incumbent Socialist Javier Fernández announced his intention to run for re-election to a second term in office, being chosen as his party's candidate without opposition.[8] Opposition leader Francisco Álvarez-Cascos announced on 12 February 2015 that he would not stand again as Asturias Forum's candidate,[9] with Cristina Coto being elected as the party's candidate and leader the following month.[10][11] Mercedes Fernández was elected as People's Party candidate for a second consecutive time,[12] while Gaspar Llamazares was proclaimed as the candidate for United Left after a primary election held on 24 January 2015.[13]

Finally, Ignacio Prendes, the only deputy of Union, Progress and Democracy, was expelled from the party and will contest as the candidate of Citizens (C's).[14] Adán Fernández will substitute him as the candidate of the party.[15]

The election will be influenced by the surge of two rising parties in opinion polls: Podemos (Spanish for We can), a left-wing party created in January 2014 to contest the 2014 European Parliament election and whose success brough it to establish itself as a fully-fledged party at the national level, and centrist Citizens (C's), whose rise in opinion polls early in 2015 and its success in the 2015 Andalusian election has brought it at the center of media attention. Emilio León will stand as Podemos' candidate after being elected in a primary election process held during the last weeks of March,[16] Citizens will also run in the election,[17] despite an early controversy resulted in the resignation of the former party's candidate Francisco Gambarte and the party staff considering whether to stand or not in the region.[18] Nicanor García will be the candidate, while Ignacio Prendes, expelled from UPyD, will be the second person in the list.[19]

On April 21, it was confirmed that 19 parties will take part in the election.[20]

Opinion polls

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork/
publication date		 Sample
size		 TO Lead
Regional Election 24.05.15 N/A 55.8% 26.5 8.2 21.6 11.9 0.8 7.1 19.1 4.9
Ipsos 17.05.15 1,800 ? 30.4 10.3 17.9 11.5 12.6 13.3 12.5
NC Report 17.05.15 400 ? 24.1 11.7 23.3 8.7 2.3 13.2 14.0 0.8
Intercampo 23.04.15–30.04.15 1,500 ? 28.0 8.0 19.5 9.0 15.0 19.5 8.5
CIS 23.03.15–19.04.15 1,198 ? 25.5 10.0 19.9 6.7 2.2 10.6 21.4 4.1
NC Report 16.03.15–01.04.15 400 ? 23.4 13.6 23.1 7.2 2.7 13.1 14.5 0.3
EDA 24.11.14–28.11.14 617 ? 27.3 22.1 19.3 8.3 3.6 14.0 5.2
EDA 01.10.14–10.10.14 471 ? 25.4 21.5 18.0 5.8 3.1 20.6 3.9
TPA 23.07.14 400 ? 24.1 14.6 23.8 8.3 3.6 18.7 0.3
EP Election 25.05.14 N/A 39.0% 26.1 4.2 24.2 12.9 6.0 2.5 13.6 1.9
SyM Consulting 28.11.13–01.12.13 608 65% 27.8 16.4 15.2 13.2 14.5 11.4
NC Report 15.04.13–10.05.13 200 ? 31.8 26.5 18.8 5.3
Regional Election 25.03.12 N/A 51.1% 32.1 24.8 21.5 13.8 3.7 7.3

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork/
publication date
Regional Election 24.05.15 14 3 11 5 0 3 9
GAD3 24.05.15 14/16 5/7 9/11 2/3 0 3/4 7/9
GAD3 17.05.15 15/17 4/5 10/11 3 0 4/5 6/7
Ipsos 17.05.15 14/15 5/6 8/9 4/5 0 6/7 5/6
NC Report 17.05.15 12/13 5/6 11/12 2/3 0 6/7 6/7
Intercampo 23.04.15–30.04.15 11/14 2/3 9/11 3/4 0 7/8 9/11
CIS 23.03.15–19.04.15 13 5 11 2 0 4 10
NC Report 16.03.15–01.04.15 11/12 6/7 11/12 2/3 0 6/7 6/7
PSOE 28.03.15 15/18 3 9/10 3 0/1 0 10/12
Llorente & Cuenca 31.10.15 12/14 6/9 12/14 4 2 0 5/7
Asturbarómetro 22.07.14–22.08.14 16 4 14 4 1 0 6
EP Election 25.05.14 (16) (1) (14) (5) (2) (0) (7)
PP 12.01.14 14 14 7 9 1
SyM Consulting 28.11.13–01.12.13 15−16 8 8−9 6−7 6−7
NC Report 18.11.13 15/16 14/15 7/8 6/7 1
PP 11.05.13 15/17 15/17 6/8 5/6 0/2
NC Report 15.04.13–10.05.13 16/17 13/14 9/10 6/7 1
Regional Election 25.03.12 17 12 10 5 1

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Asturian General Junta election results →
Party Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Won +/−
Asturian Socialist Federation (FSA–PSOE) 143,851 26.48 –5.62 14 –3
People's Party of Asturias (PP) 117,319 21.59 +0.06 11 +1
We Can (Podemos) 103,571 19.06 New 9 +9
United Left of Asturias (IU–IX) 64,868 11.94 –1.83 5 ±0
Asturias Forum (FAC) 44,480 8.19 –16.61 3 –9
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 38,687 7.12 New 3 +3
Blank ballots 10,271 1.89 +0.46
Total 543,345 100.00 45 ±0
Valid votes 543,345 98.58 –0.57
Invalid votes 7,847 1.42 +0.57
Votes cast / turnout 551,192 55.79 +4.64
Abstentions 436,865 44.21 –4.64
Registered voters 988,057
Source: Argos Information Portal
Vote share
FSA–PSOE
  
 26.48%
PP
  
 21.59%
Podemos
  
 19.06%
IU–IX
  
 11.94%
FAC
  
 8.19%
C's
  
 7.12%
Others
  
 3.74%
Blank ballots
  
 1.89%
Parliamentary seats
FSA–PSOE
  
 31.11%
PP
  
 24.44%
Podemos
  
 20.00%
IU–IX
  
 11.11%
FAC
  
 6.67%
C's
  
 6.67%

References

  1. ↑ "Law 14/1986, of 26 December, on the regulation of elections to the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias".
  2. ↑ "UPyD breaks with the PSOE in Asturias and leaves the regional government in minority" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-11-01.
  3. ↑ "UPyD and IU announce the rupture of the legislature pact with the PSOE in Asturias" (in Spanish). ABC. 2013-11-01.
  4. ↑ "PSOE switches allies and relies on the PP to keep governing Asturias" (in Spanish). El Confidencial. 2014-03-19.
  5. ↑ "PSOE and PP agree the budget in Asturias" (in Spanish). InfoLibre. 2014-11-17.
  6. ↑ "PSOE and PP close the legislature with an unforeseen budgetary agrement in Asturias" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2014-12-28.
  7. ↑ "García-Pumarino denounces that the 'duerno agreement' "is more alive than ever"" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2014-10-05.
  8. ↑ "Javier Fernández (PSOE) stand for re-election in Asturias: "I have strength, ambition and am not afraid"" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-09-20.
  9. ↑ "Cascos renounces to head his party's candidacy in the regional election" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2015-02-12.
  10. ↑ "Cristina Coto will opt to relieve Álvarez-Cascos at the head of FAC" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2015-02-16.
  11. ↑ "Cristina Coto will be Forum's President without the support from the Gijon and Siero sectors" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-02-22.
  12. ↑ "Mercedes Fernández, PP candidate to the Principality's Presidency" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-03-06.
  13. ↑ "Gaspar Llamazares elected as IU candidate to the presidency of the Principality" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-01-25.
  14. ↑ "Prendes will be the Citizens candidate after resigning to its seat for UPyD" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-04-10.
  15. ↑ "Adán Fernández, new candidate of UPyD in the Principality" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-04-18.
  16. ↑ "Emilio León, Podemos' candidate to the presidency of Asturias" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-04-01.
  17. ↑ "Uncertainty marks electoral candidacies in Asturias" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2015-04-04.
  18. ↑ "Citizens will repeat primaries in Asturias after its candidate's renounce" (in Spanish). El Confidencial Autonómico. 2015-03-13.
  19. ↑ "Nicanor García será el candidato autonómico de Ciudadanos con Prendes como número dos" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2015-04-18.
  20. ↑ "Los partidos que darán la batalla electoral" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-04-21.

External links

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