United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010

November 2, 2010



Nominee	John Boozman	Blanche Lincoln
Party	Republican	Democratic
Popular vote	451,617	288,156
Percentage	57.90%	36.95%

County results

U.S. Senator before election

Blanche Lincoln
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

John Boozman
Republican

Elections in Arkansas

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Ballot measures

2004: Constitutional Amendment 3

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The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010 alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, but lost to Republican nominee John Boozman. Boozman became the first Republican in 138 years to win this seat.

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3 to 17. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1 to 7.^[1]

MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations.^[2] Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign.^[3]

Candidates

Bill Halter, Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas^[4]
Blanche Lincoln, incumbent Senator^[5]
D.C. Morrison, businessman

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Blanche Lincoln	Bill Halter	D.C. Morrison	Other	Undecided
Research 2000	May 10–12, 2010	600	± 5%	46%	37%	6%	—	11%
Research 2000	April 26–28, 2010	600	± 5%	43%	35%	—	7%	15%
Talk Business	April 13, 2010	1,167	± 3%	38%	31%	10%	—	20%
Research 2000	March 22–24, 2010	600	± 4%	44%	31%	—	—	25%
Research 2000	Nov. 30–Dec. 2, 2010	600	± 4%	42%	26%	—	—	32%

Results

Democratic primary results^[6]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Blanche Lincoln (Incumbent)	146,579	44.5
	Democratic	Bill Halter	140,081	42.5
	Democratic	D.C. Morrison	42,695	13
Total votes			329,355	100

Runoff

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Blanche Lincoln	Bill Halter	Undecided
Research 2000	June 2–4, 2010	600	± 4%	45%	49%	6%
Research 2000	May 24–26, 2010	600	± 4%	44%	47%	9%

Results

Lincoln counties in blue, Halter counties in green.

Democratic primary runoff results^[7]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Blanche Lincoln (Incumbent)	134,758	52
	Democratic	Bill Halter	124,405	48
Total votes			259,163	100

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17.

Candidates

Randy Alexander, University of Arkansas Housing Director and Vice Chair of the Washington County Tea Party
Gilbert Baker, State Senator^[8]
John Boozman, U.S. Representative^[9]
Curtis Coleman, businessman^[10]
Kim Hendren, State Senate Minority Leader^[11]
Jim Holt, former State Senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004^[12]
Fred Ramey, real estate investment company owner^[13]
Conrad Reynolds, retired Army colonel^[14]

Straw poll

In December 2009, a straw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows:^[15]

Gilbert Baker – 35%
Curtis Coleman – 33%
Conrad Reynolds – 23%
Tom Cox – 4%
Kim Hendren – 2%
Fred Ramey – 2%
Buddy Rogers – 1%

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Randy Alexander	Gilbert Baker	John Boozman	Curtis Coleman	Kim Hendren	Jim Holt	Fred Ramey	Conrad Reynolds	Other	Undecided
Research 2000	May 10–12, 2010	?	± 4%	—	12%	46%	—	6%	19%	—	—	4%	13%
Talk Business	April 13, 2010	1,357	± 3%	3%	14%	46%	5%	3%	8%	1%	3%	—	17%

Results

Republican primary results^[16]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	John Boozman	75,010	52.7
	Republican	Jim Holt	24,826	17.5
	Republican	Gilbert Baker	16,540	11.6
	Republican	Conrad Reynolds	7,128	5
	Republican	Curtis Coleman	6,928	4.9
	Republican	Kim Hendren	5,551	3.9
	Republican	Randy Alexander	4,389	3.1
	Republican	Fred Ramey	1,888	1.3
Total votes			142,260	100

General election

Candidates

John Boozman, U.S. representative
Blanche Lincoln, incumbent senator
Trevor Drown (L), military veteran^[17]^[18]
John Gray (G), Mayor of Greenland^[19]

Campaign

Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since the Reconstruction, who was defeated after his first term in 2002 by Mark Pryor. Lincoln faced Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest.

The political blog FiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle. RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators.^[20] Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%), Libertarian Trevor Drown (3%) and Green John Gray (2%).

Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman of supporting the FairTax and privatization of Social Security.^[21] She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks.^[22]

Debates

Lincoln and Boozman agreed to two debates.

September 10: At the Peabody Hotel in Little Rock.^[23]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report	Leans R^[24]	October 9, 2010
Rothenberg	Leans R^[25]	October 8, 2010
Swing State Project	Safe R
RealClearPolitics	Safe R^[26]
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R^[27]	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics	Leans R^[28]	October 9, 2010

Fundraising

Candidate (Party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Blanche Lincoln (D)	$9,508,007	$8,431,989	$1,886,132	$0
John Boozman (R)	$1,452,241	$968,318	$483,923	$11,905
Source: Federal Election Commission^[29]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Blanche Lincoln (D)	John Boozman (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports	October 28, 2010	500	± 4.5%	36%	55%	5%	4%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research	October 15–19, 2010	1,505	± 2.5%	41%	55%	—	—
Mason-Dixon	October 15–19, 2010	625	± 4%	34%	55%	6%	5%
Talk Business	October 14, 2010	1,953	± 2.2%	36%	49%	8%	7%
Rasmussen Reports	September 30, 2010	500	± 4.5%	37%	55%	3%	5%
Reuters/Ipsos	September 17–19, 2010	600	± 4%	39%	53%	1%	7%
Mason-Dixon	September 12–14, 2010	625	± 4%	34%	51%	4%	11%
Rasmussen Reports	August 18, 2010	500	± 4.5%	27%	65%	4%	3%
Rasmussen Reports	July 20, 2010	500	± 4.5%	35%	60%	2%	3%
Reuters/Ipsos	July 16–18, 2010	600	± 4%	35%	54%	1%	10%
Talk Business	July 17, 2010	793	± 3.7%	32%	57%	5%	6%
Magellan Strategies	July 12, 2010	879	± 3.3%	29%	60%	4%	6%
Rasmussen Reports	June 15, 2010	500	± 4.5%	32%	61%	4%	3%
Research 2000	May 24–26, 2010	600	± 4%	38%	58%	—	4%
Rasmussen Reports	May 19, 2010	500	± 4.5%	28%	66%	2%	4%
Research 2000	May 10–12, 2010	—	± 4%	40%	54%	—	—
Research 2000	April 26–28, 2010	600	± 5%	42%	52%	—	—
Rasmussen Reports	April 26, 2010	500	± 4.5%	30%	57%	9%	5%
Rasmussen Reports	March 30, 2010	500	± 4.5%	36%	51%	6%	7%
Research 2000	March 22–24, 2010	600	± 4%	42%	49%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports	March 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	39%	48%	6%	7%
Rasmussen Reports	February 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	35%	54%	4%	7%
Public Policy Polling	January 29–31, 2010	810	± 3.4%	33%	56%	—	11%

Hypothetical polling

Poll Source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of Error	Blanche Lincoln (D)	Gilbert Baker (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report)	March 20–22, 2009	600	± 4%	48%	37%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling (report)	August 21–24, 2009	784	± 3.5%	40%	42%	—	18%
Research 2000 (report)	September 8–10, 2009	600	± 4%	44%	37%	—	19%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	September 28, 2009	500	± 4.5%	39%	47%	5%	8%
Zogby (report)	November 16–17, 2009	501	± 4.5%	41%	39%	2%	18%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	December 1, 2009	500	± 4.5%	41%	47%	6%	7%
Research 2000 (report)	November 30-Dec. 2, 2009	—	± 4%	42%	41%	—	—
Rasmussen Reports (report)	January 5, 2010	500	± 4.5%	39%	51%	3%	7%
Public Policy Polling (report)	January 29–31, 2010	810	± 3.4%	35%	50%	—	15%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	February 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	33%	52%	6%	8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	40%	45%	6%	8%
Research 2000 (report)	March 22–24, 2010	600	± 4%	41%	49%	—	10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 30, 2010	500	± 4.5%	36%	51%	6%	7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	April 26, 2010	500	± 4.5%	31%	53%	12%	4%
Research 2000 (report)	April 26–28, 2010	600	± 5%	40%	47%	—	—
Research 2000 (report)	May 10–12, 2010	—	± 4%	39%	45%	—	—

Poll Source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of Error	Blanche Lincoln (D)	Kim Hendren (R)	Other	Undecided
Research 2000 (report)	September 8–10, 2009	600	± 4%	47%	28%	—	25%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	September 28, 2009	500	± 4.5%	41%	44%	5%	10%
Zogby (report)	November 16–17, 2009	501	± 4.5%	45%	29%	2%	24%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	December 1, 2009	500	± 4.5%	39%	46%	6%	9%
Research 2000 (report)	November 30-Dec. 2, 2009	—	± 4%	46%	30%	—	—
Rasmussen Reports (report)	January 5, 2010	500	± 4.5%	39%	47%	4%	10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	February 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	35%	51%	7%	7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	38%	43%	7%	12%
Research 2000 (report)	March 22–24, 2010	600	± 4%	43%	48%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 30, 2010	500	± 4.5%	35%	51%	5%	8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	April 26, 2010	500	± 4.5%	30%	51%	11%	8%
Research 2000 (report)	April 26–28, 2010	600	± 5%	40%	50%	—	—
Research 2000 (report)	May 10–12, 2010	—	± 4%	40%	46%	—	—

Poll Source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of Error	Blanche Lincoln (D)	Curtis Coleman (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report)	August 21–24, 2009	784	± 3.5%	40%	41%	—	19%
Research 2000 (report)	September 8–10, 2009	600	± 4%	45%	37%	—	18%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	September 28, 2009	500	± 4.5%	41%	43%	5%	11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	December 1, 2009	500	± 4.5%	40%	44%	7%	9%
Research 2000 (report)	November 30-Dec. 2, 2009	—	± 4%	44%	39%	—	—
Rasmussen Reports (report)	January 5, 2010	500	± 4.5%	38%	48%	4%	9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	February 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	34%	50%	7%	9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	41%	43%	7%	10%
Research 2000 (report)	March 22–24, 2010	600	± 4%	44%	47%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 30, 2010	500	± 4.5%	36%	48%	7%	8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	April 26, 2010	500	± 4.5%	32%	52%	8%	7%
Research 2000 (report)	April 26–28, 2010	600	± 5%	42%	46%	—	—

Poll Source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of Error	Blanche Lincoln (D)	Jim Holt (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	38%	45%	6%	10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 30, 2010	500	± 4.5%	35%	51%	7%	7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	April 26, 2010	500	± 4.5%	31%	54%	6%	9%
Research 2000 (report)	May 10–12, 2010	—	± 4%	41%	44%	—	—

Poll Source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of Error	Bill Halter (D)	John Boozman (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	33%	52%	6%	9%
Research 2000 (report)	March 22–24, 2010	600	± 4%	40%	48%	—	12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 30, 2010	500	± 4.5%	34%	48%	8%	11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	April 26, 2010	500	± 4.5%	31%	56%	7%	7%
Research 2000 (report)	April 26–28, 2010	600	± 5%	42%	47%	—	—
Research 2000 (report)	May 10–12, 2010	—	± 4%	41%	50%	—	—

Poll Source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of Error	Bill Halter (D)	Gilbert Baker (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	37%	44%	5%	13%
Research 2000 (report)	March 22–24, 2010	600	± 4%	44%	46%	—	10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 30, 2010	500	± 4.5%	36%	44%	7%	12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	April 26, 2010	500	± 4.5%	33%	48%	10%	9%
Research 2000 (report)	April 26–28, 2010	600	± 5%	43%	44%	—	—
Research 2000 (report)	May 10–12, 2010	—	± 4%	42%	42%	—	—

Poll Source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of Error	Bill Halter (D)	Kim Hendren (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	35%	42%	7%	15%
Research 2000 (report)	March 22–24, 2010	600	± 4%	44%	45%	—	11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 30, 2010	500	± 4.5%	34%	42%	10%	13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	April 26, 2010	500	± 4.5%	33%	45%	15%	9%
Research 2000 (report)	April 26–28, 2010	600	± 5%	43%	45%	—	—
Research 2000 (report)	May 10–12, 2010	—	± 4%	42%	42%	—	—

Poll Source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of Error	Bill Halter (D)	Curtis Coleman (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	35%	38%	9%	18%
Research 2000 (report)	March 22–24, 2010	600	± 4%	45%	44%	—	11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 30, 2010	500	± 4.5%	37%	40%	10%	13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	April 26, 2010	500	± 4.5%	37%	43%	11%	9%
Research 2000 (report)	April 26–28, 2010	600	± 5%	43%	41%	—	—

Poll Source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of Error	Bill Halter (D)	Jim Holt (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 1, 2010	500	± 4.5%	38%	42%	8%	12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	March 30, 2010	500	± 4.5%	34%	43%	9%	13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)	April 26, 2010	500	± 4.5%	31%	49%	12%	8%
Research 2000 (report)	May 10–12, 2010	—	± 4%	42%	43%	—	—

Results

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010^[30]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Republican	John Boozman	451,617	57.90%	+13.83%
	Democratic	Blanche Lincoln (incumbent)	288,156	36.95%	-18.95%
	Libertarian	Trevor Drown	25,234	3.24%	+3.24%
	Green	John Gray	14,430	1.85%	+1.85%
Majority			163,461	20.95%
Total votes			779,437	100
Turnout
	Republican gain from Democratic		Swing

References

↑ "Election Dates and Deadlines". Secretary of State of Arkansas. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
↑ Cillizza, Chris. "The Fix" Washington Post, March 3, 2010.
↑ DeMillo, Andrew. "Halter raises more than $2M for Ark. Senate bid" Archived October 23, 2012, at the Wayback Machine. Business Week, April 1, 2010.
↑ "CNN Political Ticker - All politics, all the time - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
↑ "Vice President in Little Rock to Support Senator Lincoln". KATV. March 15, 2009. Archived from the original on July 6, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
↑ "Arkansas Secretary of State". Votenaturally.org. 2010-06-18. Retrieved 2014-08-23.
↑ "Arkansas Democratic Runoff Results". Politico. June 8, 2010. Retrieved June 8, 2010.
↑ Stewart, Martina (September 1, 2009). "Former Arkansas GOP chair announces Senate bid". CNN. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
↑ Kraushaar, Josh (January 29, 2010). "Boozman running against Lincoln". The Politico. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
↑ Barr, Andy (June 15, 2009). "Tea party leader to run for Senate". The Politico. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
↑ "Kim Hendren Announces Run for U.S. Senate". KFSM-TV. April 20, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
↑ Lyon, John (January 14, 2010). "Holt announces U.S. Senate campaign". Arkansas News. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
↑ "Ramey Joins GOP Field for U.S. Senate". KATV. June 23, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
↑ "'Joe the Plumber' appears with Reynolds". WXVT. January 25, 2010. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
↑ Moritz, Rob (December 8, 2009). "Baker Upbeat After 'Straw Poll' Win". Southwest Times Record. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
↑ "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2010-06-07.
↑ "The Courier, Russellville, Ark". Couriernews.com. 2009-07-27. Retrieved 2010-06-07.
↑ "Trevor Drown (I) for Senate - Arkansas". Trevordrown.ning.com. 2010-01-31. Archived from the original on April 18, 2010. Retrieved 2010-06-07.
↑ "John Gray for U.S. Senate". John Gray for U.S. Senate. Retrieved 2010-06-07.
↑ www.realclearpolitics.com
↑ Demillo, Andrew (2010-08-11). "Lincoln criticizes Boozman on Social Security". BusinessWeek. Retrieved 2014-08-23.
↑ Jesse Zwick (2010-08-31). "The Earmark Wars Continue in Arkansas". The Washington Independent. Retrieved 2014-08-23.
↑ Archived August 24, 2010, at the Wayback Machine.
↑ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
↑ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
↑ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
↑ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
↑ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Arkansas". fec.gov. Retrieved July 25, 2010.
↑ "Arkansas Secretary of State". Votenaturally.org. 2010-11-29. Retrieved 2014-08-23.

External links

Arkansas Secretary of State - Elections
U.S. Congress candidates for Arkansas at Project Vote Smart
Arkansas U.S. Senate 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
2010 Arkansas Senate General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
Election 2010: Arkansas Senate from Rasmussen Reports
2010 Arkansas Senate Race from Real Clear Politics
2010 Arkansas Senate Race from CQ Politics
Race profile from The New York Times

Debates

Arkansas Senate Democratic Primary Debate, C-SPAN, April 23, 2010
Arkansas Senate debate excerpts, OnTheIssues.org

Official campaign sites

(2009 ←) 2010 United States elections (→ 2011)

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United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010

Democratic primary

Candidates

Polling

Results

Runoff

Polling

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

Results

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Debates

Predictions

Fundraising

Polling

Results

See also

References

External links