United States Senate election in Georgia, 2014

United States Senate election in Georgia, 2014
Georgia (U.S. state)
November 4, 2014

 
Nominee David Perdue Michelle Nunn
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,358,088 1,160,811
Percentage 52.9% 45.2%

County results

U.S. Senator before election

Saxby Chambliss
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

David Perdue
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Georgia, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Georgia, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss announced on January 25, 2013 that he would not run for re-election, making this an open-seat race.[1] After a close and contentious primary campaign, businessman David Perdue and U.S. Representative Jack Kingston advanced to a runoff for the Republican nomination, which was narrowly won by Perdue. The Democratic primary was decisively won by Points of Light CEO Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn. Also running is Libertarian nominee Amanda Swafford, a former Flowery Branch City Councilwoman.

If no candidate received a majority of the vote, a runoff would have been held between the top two finishers on January 6, 2015, after the 114th Congress had been sworn-in.[2] This was not necessary, as Perdue defeated Nunn by a 53–to–45 percent margin in the November 4 balloting.

Republican primary

The primary was held on May 20, 2014. No candidate won more than 50% of the vote, so a runoff was held between the top two candidates, David Perdue and Jack Kingston. The 30.6 percent won by Perdue is the lowest ever for a first-place finisher in a Georgia U.S. Senate primary by either party in state history.[3]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Paul
Broun
Casey
Cagle
Art
Gardner
Phil
Gingrey
Tom
Graves
Derrick
Grayson
Karen
Handel
Jack
Kingston
David
Perdue
Tom
Price
Ross
Tolleson
Eugene
Yu
Other/
Unsure
InsiderAdvantage May 18, 2014 852 ±3.36% 9.8% 0.3% 11.1% 0.7% 17.4% 16.7% 26% 18.1%
InsiderAdvantage May 12–14, 2014 1,182 ±2.9% 10% 9% 17% 19% 27% 18%
GAPundit May 12–13, 2014 1,006 ±3.1% 11% 2.1% 12.1% 2.4% 20.1% 20.5% 20.1% 11.7%
SurveyUSA May 8–12, 2014 634 ±4% 10% 1% 10% 3% 16% 19% 27% 14%
InsiderAdvantage May 7, 2014 531 ±4.2% 12% 1% 11% 2% 18% 17% 26% 13%
Landmark/Rosetta^ May 6, 2014 729 ±3.6% 8.6% 8.5% 21% 15.1% 23.1% 20.1%
Saint Leo May 5–6, 2014 689 ±4% 13% 8% 1% 15% 16% 26% 21%
NBC News/Marist Apr 30 – May 5, 2014 533 ±4.2% 11% <1% 11% 1% 14% 18% 23% 23%
McLaughlin* Apr. 28–29, 2014 400 ±4.9% 8% 13% 14% 20% 17% 28%
InsiderAdvantage Apr. 27–29, 2014 737 ±3.5% 14% 1% 12% 2% 21% 17% 22% 11%
SurveyUSA Apr. 24–27, 2014 501 ± 4.5% 13% 1% 6% 5% 15% 20% 26% 13%
InsiderAdvantage Apr. 13–15, 2014 804 ±3.4% 11% 0.5% 9% 0.5% 13% 15% 19% 32%
InsiderAdvantage Mar. 23–24, 2014 893 ±3.26% 10% 8% 5% 15% 17% 45%
Landmark/Rosetta Mar. 23–24, 2014 600 ±4% 15% 13% 10% 15% 21% 26%
SurveyUSA Mar. 16–18, 2014 508 ±4.2% 11% 1% 12% 4% 10% 19% 29% 15%
PPP Mar. 5–6, 2014 324 ±? 27% 14% 3% 9% 13% 12% 23%
HEG/AP Feb. 13–16, 2014 923 ±3.25% 10.9% 0.8% 10.4% 0.5% 10.2% 10.9% 12.7% 0.9% 42.7%
TPC Jan 31 – February 1, 2014 600 ±3.9% 13% 19% 1% 14% 11% 8% 2% 32%
PPP Aug. 2–4, 2013 260 ±6.1% 19% 25% 3% 13% 15% 5% 0% 20%
Landmark/Rosetta June 2013 450 ±4.6% 15% 17% 14% 7% 44%
GaPundit May 16, 2013 1,351 ±2.66% 14.14% 15.98% 15.81% 17.61% 5.77% 30.69%
20/20 Insight May 7–9, 2013 ? ± ? 13% 19% 16% 18% 34%
Insider Advantage April 1, 2013 573 ±4% 15% 15% 9% 14% 5% 37%
Landmark/Rosetta March 28, 2013 570 ±4.1% 16% 22% 14% 8% 1% 2% 39%
Landmark/Rosetta Feb. 15–18, 2013 483 ±4.5% 10% 17% 15% 12% 11% 2% 33%
PPP Feb. 15–18, 2013 366 ±5.1% 11% 13% 12% 3% 15% 15% 10% 20%
14% 22% 21% 18% 24%
15% 24% 18% 14% 28%
Harper Polling Feb. 11–12, 2013 ? ±? 19% 18% 13% 17% 2% 30%

Results

Republican primary results[69]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Perdue 185,466 30.64
Republican Jack Kingston 156,157 25.8
Republican Karen Handel 132,944 21.96
Republican Phil Gingrey 60,735 10.03
Republican Paul Broun 58,297 9.63
Republican Derrick Grayson 6,045 1
Republican Art Gardner 5,711 0.94
Total votes 605,355 100

Runoff

The runoff was held on July 22, 2014, which Perdue won with 50.9% of the vote.[70][71]

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Kingston
David
Perdue
Undecided
Landmark Communications July 16, 2014 1,720 ± 2.4% 48% 41% 12%
InsiderAdvantage July 15–16, 2014 696 ± 3.7% 46% 41% 13%
Public Policy Polling July 9–12, 2014 516 ± 4% 47% 41% 13%
InsiderAdvantage July 7–9, 2014 1,278 ± 2.7% 41.9% 41.1% 17%
WPA Opinion Research^ June 22–24, 2014 600 ± 4% 44% 45% 11%
Gravis Marketing June 11–12, 2014 1,140 ± 3% 49% 38% 14%
InsiderAdvantage June 10–11, 2014 401 ± 4.89% 46.1% 35.1% 18.9%
SurveyUSA June 3–5, 2014 419 ± 4.9% 52% 41% 7%
McLaughlin* May 27–29, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 49% 35% 16%
Public Policy Polling May 21–22, 2014 410 ± ?% 46% 34% 20%

Results

Republican primary runoff results[87]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Perdue 245,951 50.88
Republican Jack Kingston 237,448 49.12
Total votes 483,399 100

Democratic primary

Campaign

With Democratic Congressman John Barrow passing on the race, Nunn consulted with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee about possibly running,[88] as well as with Georgia political figures such as Shirley Franklin, Roy Barnes, and Andrew Young.[89] Though she was little known to voters,[90] Democrats embraced the hope that Nunn, with her executive experience as well as family name, could make their party once again competitive in-state.[88]

On July 22, 2013, Nunn declared herself a candidate for U.S. Senate.[91] She said: "Our opportunity is to define ourselves. I'm going to talk a lot about the deficit. Neither side of the equation is really tackling that. I think people are really tired of the mudslinging and the silliness of this."[91] If elected, Nunn would become the 29th Georgian elected to the U.S. Senate or U.S. House with a family member who previously served in Congress, and the first since her father (who is the grandnephew of Carl Vinson).[92]

She raised $1.7 million in campaign funds during the third quarter of 2013, more than twice that of any Republican running.[93] She followed that with a $1.6 million fourth quarter[94] and a $2.4 million first quarter of 2014, again the most of anyone in the race.[95]

On May 20, 2014, Nunn won the Democratic primary for the Senate seat with 75 percent of the vote,[96] having skipped many of the debates and public forums where three other little-known candidates appeared.[97]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steen
Miles
Michelle
Nunn
Branko
Radulovacki
Todd
Robinson
Undecided
SurveyUSA May 8–12, 2014 549 ± 4.2% 7% 59% 5% 10% 19%
SurveyUSA April 24–27, 2014 435 ± 4.7% 13% 57% 5% 7% 18%
SurveyUSA March 16–18, 2014 443 ± 4.8% 11% 48% 5% 14% 23%

Results

Democratic primary results[69]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michelle Nunn 246,369 74.95
Democratic Steen Miles 39,418 11.99
Democratic Todd Robinson 31,822 9.68
Democratic Branko Radulovacki 11,101 3.38
Total votes 328,710 100

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

General election

Campaign

Following the conclusion of the two primaries, the race was set up as being between two self-described political "outsiders" with well-known-in-state political family names, each seeking to reach moderate and independent voters.[127][128]

In July 2014, National Review, a conservative media outlet, reported on a leaked Nunn campaign memo from December 2013 which made frank recommendations on strategy for Nunn's path to victory in Georgia.[129][130][131] The leaked memo said that likely attack lines against Nunn would include that she was a "lightweight", "too liberal", and "not a 'real' Georgian".[132] The memo said that Nunn should feature images of her and her family in rural settings in order to connect with rural voters, and suggested that Nunn focus on African American clergy to raise enthusiasm for her candidacy among African American voters and that Nunn focus her efforts on Jews and Asians to raise money.[129]

First Lady Michelle Obama campaigned on behalf of Nunn, as part of an effort to increase African-American voter turnout in midterm elections.[133][134]

Nunn's stump speech emphasized an appeal to bipartisanship.[135] She received support and donations from former Republican Senators Richard Lugar and John Warner, both of whom were close to her father,[120] and support from former Georgia Senator and Governor Zell Miller, a Democrat who had endorsed Republicans over the previous decade.[136] Nunn's campaign commercials used photographs of herself and President George H. W. Bush, who founded Points of Light, together in campaign commercials and she mentioned him often on the campaign trail.[137] However, in June 2014, Bush sent out a fundraising letter that, while not mentioning her by name, called on Republican donors to support the Republican nominee,[137] and in September 2014, Bush endorsed Perdue.[138] In October 2014, Bush emphatically objected to Nunn continuing to use a photograph of him in her campaign, saying that such actions were disrespectful.[139] Points of Light chair Neil Bush neither endorsed nor opposed her candidacy,[140] but did label as "shameful" an advertisement approved by Perdue that used a past episode to say that Points of Light "gave money to organizations linked to terrorists."[141]

As the campaign moved on, Nunn made her father a focal point, staging joint appearances with him at military bases and saying that she would emulate his bipartisan approach to legislating.[142] She has also said that she would seek a seat on the Senate Armed Services Committee that he once chaired.[142]

Perdue stated that he entered politics out of concern for the rising national debt. He supported repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act.[143] He also supported a constitutional balanced budget amendment and comprehensive tax reform.[144] In addition, he pledged to limit himself to two terms in the Senate, if elected.[145]

Perdue touted his business experience, and particularly his experience at Dollar General, saying, "We added about 2,200 stores, created almost 20,000 jobs and doubled the value of that company in a very short period of time. Not because of me, but because we listened to our customers and employees." He received the endorsement of the National Federation of Independent Business.[146] But he was hurt during the campaign by revelations that he had in the past been an enthusiastic supporter of outsourcing.[147] Nunn targeted past pre-political statements of Perdue where he had said he was "proud of" his outsourcing efforts, and for the job losses that followed the final closure of Pillowtex.[146][148]

Policy positions

Perdue supported repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act.[143] He supported a constitutional balanced budget amendment and comprehensive tax reform.[144] He pledged to limit himself to two terms in the Senate, if elected.[145]

Nunn supported abortion-rights.[149] Nunn believed that members of Congress should be forced to pass a budget each year, or forfeit their pay.[150] Nunn supported expanding federally mandated background checks to include all local sales to prevent the possibility that mentally ill persons would be able to buy a firearm.[151] Nunn said that going forward, some aspects of the Affordable Care Act should be fixed rather than the whole law being eliminated.[91][152] She criticized Georgia's refusal to accept Medicaid expansion under the act.[91] Following the start-up problems with the associated HealthCare.gov website, Nunn broke with the Obama administration and said that the individual mandate portion of the law should be delayed.[153] Nunn supported the 2013 Senate immigration plan that would have allowed illegal immigrants to stay in the United States while waiting for American citizenship.[151] Nunn favored construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline.[150] She opposed the Obama administration's proposed cuts to defense spending.[142] On the topic of same-sex marriage, Nunn said she personally favored it, but that the decision should be made on a state-by-state basis.[91]

Debates

Perdue and Nunn held debates on August 21,[154] October 7, October 26,[155] and November 2.[156]

Fundraising

The following are Federal Election Commission disclosures for the October Quarterly reporting period.

David Perdue has funded more than $1.9 million of his campaign personally; the second-largest total of any Senate candidate.[157]

A total of $23,355,844 has been raised by the candidates for this race. Of that, a total of $22,917,058 has been spent by all of the campaigns. To put that in perspective, that is $2.31 per Georgian.

Candidate Contributions Expenditures Cash on Hand Debt
Michelle Nunn (D) $13,035,397 $13,064,094 $1,105,870 $2,768
David Perdue (R) $10,719,297 $11,069,317 $669,343 $150,000

Spending

This Senate race, as many others across the United States, was heavily influenced by outside PACs and organizations who support various candidates.[158] The U.S. Chamber of Commerce was expected to spend almost $50 million on elections in 2014[158] and endorsed Republican Jack Kingston. More than $4.6 million has been spent on advertising in the Georgia race by outside groups so far.[159] In 2008, outside groups spent more than $20 million in the Georgia Senate race.[160]

Organization/Candidate Supporting Amount Media Goal
United States Chamber of Commerce Jack Kingston (R) $920,000[160] TV and Online Ads Support Jack Kingston (R)
Citizens for a Working America PAC David Perdue (R) $1,000,000[160] TV Attack Jack Kingston (R)
Citizens for a Working America PAC David Perdue (R) $515,000[160] TV Support David Perdue (R)
Ending Spending Action Fund N/A $1,750,000[160] TV Attack Phil Gingrey
Ending Spending Action Fund N/A $334,000[160] TV Attack Michelle Nunn
Nunn for Senate, Inc. Michelle Nunn $55,000[161] TV Support Michelle Nunn

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Perdue (R)
Michelle
Nunn (D)
Amanda
Swafford (L)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 1–3, 2014 975 ± 3.1% 46% 45% 5% 5%
48% 48% 5%
Landmark Communications November 2, 2014 1,500 ± 2.5% 49.8% 45.6% 2.4% 2.2%
Insider Advantage November 2, 2014 1,463 ± 3% 48% 45% 3% 4%
SurveyUSA October 30 – November 2, 2014 591 ± 4.1% 47% 44% 5% 4%
Perkins October 28 – November 2, 2014 ? ? 48% 40% 3% 9%
Public Policy Polling October 30–31, 2014 533 ± ? 46% 46% 4% 4%
YouGov October 25–31, 2014 1,743 ± 3.2% 44% 42% 1% 1% 12%
NBC News/Marist October 26–30, 2014 603 LV ± 4% 48% 44% 3% 1% 4%
875 RV ± 3.3% 45% 43% 4% 1% 7%
Landmark Communications October 29, 2014 1,500 ± 2.5% 47.4% 46.6% 2.7% 3.3%
Vox Populi Polling October 28, 2014 602 ± 4% 48% 43% 3% 6%
Monmouth October 26–28, 2014 436 ± 4.7% 49% 41% 3% 7%
Rasmussen Reports October 25–27, 2014 977 ± 3% 46% 46% 3% 5%
SurveyUSA October 24–27, 2014 611 ± 4% 48% 45% 3% 5%
Public Policy Polling October 23–24, 2014 771 ± ?% 47% 47% 3% 4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,774 ± 4% 47% 44% 1% 0% 8%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution October 16–23, 2014 1,170 ± 3.6% 44% 42% 6% 8%
Insider Advantage October 21–22, 2014 704 ± 3.7% 44.9% 47.3% 4.1% 3.7%
CNN/ORC International October 19–22, 2014 565 ± 4% 44% 47% 5% 4%
Landmark Communications October 20–21, 2014 1,000 ± 2.75% 47.3% 47.4% 3.3% 2%
SurveyUSA October 17–20, 2014 606 ± 4.1% 44% 46% 4% 7%
GaPundit.com October 13–14, 2014 1,543 ± 2.49% 44.72% 45.69% 6.03% 3.56%
SurveyUSA October 10–13, 2014 563 ± 4.2% 45% 48% 3% 4%
Landmark Communications October 7–9, 2014 1,000 ± 3.1% 46% 46% 4% 4%
SurveyUSA October 2–6, 2014 566 ± 4.2% 46% 45% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling October 2–5, 2014 895 ± 3.3% 45% 43% 5% 8%
48% 45% 6%
Hickman Analytics September 26 – October 5, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 41% 39% 6% 14%
Rasmussen Reports September 30 – October 1, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 46% 42% 4% 9%
Insider Advantage September 29 – October 1, 2014 947 ± 3.2% 47% 42.6% 3.6% 6.8%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner September 25 – October 1, 2014 1,000 ± 2.09% 46% 41% 14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,851 ± 3% 47% 43% 2% 0% 9%
SurveyUSA September 19–22, 2014 550 ± 4.3% 46% 45% 4% 6%
Rasmussen Reports September 15–16, 2014 750 ± 4% 46% 41% 4% 9%
Insider Advantage September 10–11, 2014 1,167 ± 2.9% 50.1% 39.8% 5% 5.1%
Landmark Communications September 9–11, 2014 1,109 ± 2.9% 43.4% 46% 6.4% 4.2%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution September 8–11, 2014 884 ± 4% 45% 41% 6% 8%
SurveyUSA September 5–8, 2014 558 ± 4.2% 47% 44% 5% 4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 1,900 ± 3% 47% 41% 3% 1% 9%
GaPundit.com August 24–25, 2014 1,578 ± 2.47% 43.09% 44.74% 7.41% 4.75%
Landmark Communications August 20–21, 2014 600 ± 4% 40% 47% 3% 10%
SurveyUSA August 14–17, 2014 560 ± 4.2% 50% 41% 3% 6%
InsiderAdvantage August 12–13, 2014 719 ± 3.7% 47% 40% 8% 5%
Hicks Evaluation Group August 8–10, 2014 788 ± 3.48% 47.6% 41.5% 10.9%
Vox Populi Polling July 27–28, 2014 624 ± 3.9% 49% 40% 1% 10%
Landmark Communications July 25, 2014 750 ± 3.8% 43% 46.6% 3.8% 6.6%
Rasmussen Reports July 23–24, 2014 750 ± 4% 46% 40% 4% 10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 2,541 ± 3.4% 47% 42% 3% 8%
Landmark Communications July 16, 2014 750 ± 4% 42% 48% 10%
Public Policy Polling July 11–13, 2014 664 ± ? 41% 48% 10%
SurveyUSA June 3–5, 2014 999 ± 3.2% 43% 38% 6% 14%
Rasmussen Reports May 21–22, 2014 750 ± 4% 42% 45% 7% 6%
Public Policy Polling May 21–22, 2014 803 ± ?% 46% 48% 7%
Landmark/Rosetta Stone May 2014 1,000 ± 3% 44% 45% 11%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution May 5–8, 2014 1,012 ± 4% 45% 46% 8%
Saint Leo May 5–6, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 41% 37% 6% 15%
NBC News/Marist April 30 – May 5, 2014 1,066 ± 3% 45% 41% 1% 13%
Landmark/Rosetta Stone March 31, 2014 600 ± 4% 37.5% 33% 29.5%
Public Policy Polling August 2–4, 2013 520 ± 4.3% 40% 40% 21%

Results

General election results[163]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Perdue 1,358,088 52.9
Democratic Michelle Nunn 1,160,811 45.2
Libertarian Amanda Swafford 48,862 1.9
Total votes 2,567,761 100
Republican hold

Results breakdown

Perdue's victory was part of a wave of Republican victories across the nation.[164] Nunn failed to improve on Obama's losing percentages in the state from two years earlier and any changes in the state's demographics were not enough for Democrats to prevail.[147] Nevertheless, Nunn took credit for making the party competitive in the otherwise inhospitable South: "We put Georgia in play. We have reminded people what a two-party system looks like."[147]

See also

References

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  2. Washington Post
  3. Ostermeier, Eric (May 23, 2014). "Is a Rough Road Ahead for David Perdue?". Smart Politics.
  4. Sullivan, Sean (February 6, 2013). "Paul Broun announces Georgia Senate bid". Washington Post. Retrieved February 7, 2013.
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  63. Chamber endorses Kingston in Georgia | TheHill
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  124. Amanda Swafford | Libertarian Party
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  135. 1 2 McWhirter, Cameron (June 13, 2014). "George H.W. Bush Doesn't Back Michelle Nunn in Georgia Race". The Wall Street Journal.
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  137. O'Keefe, Ed (October 20, 2014). "George H.W. Bush unhappy with Michelle Nunn's new TV ad". The Washington Post.
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  139. Galloway, Jim (September 16, 2014). "Neil Bush denounces 'shameful' claims linking Michelle Nunn to 'terrorists'". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
  140. 1 2 3 Itkowitz, Colby (September 3, 2014). "Former Sen. Sam Nunn tells Georgia voters Michelle Nunn would be his ideological heir". The Washington Post.
  141. 1 2 Jim Gaines (August 21, 2014). "Nunn, Perdue take different tacks at forum". Ledger-Enquirer.
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  144. 1 2 Chris Joyner (October 6, 2014). "Perdue 'proud' of outsourcing past, blames Washington for jobs lost". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
  145. 1 2 3 Stanford, Duane (November 6, 2014). "Democrats' Dreams Put on Hold by Nunn's Defeat". Bloomberg News.
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  154. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/222589-nunn-seeks-the-offensive-in-final-georgia-senate-debate
  155. Hot Races 2014: Biggest GOP Spending Groups Shying Away, So Far, from Georgia | OpenSecrets Blog
  156. 1 2 Groups spend big to influence Georgia Senate race - Businessweek
  157. Groups spend big to influence Georgia Senate race - Yahoo News
  158. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Politics News and U.S. Elections Coverage - ABC News
  159. Michelle Nunn up today with first TV ad | Political Insider blog
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